The latest ABS Births, Australia, 2025 release reports 299,903 registered births, an increase of 2.6% (7,585 births) from 2024. This returns registrations to around 300,000 annually, although they remain below the 2018 peak of 315,147.
Part of the increase reflects improvements in birth registration processing across several states, rather than necessarily more births occurring. Nevertheless, the results suggest some stabilisation following several years of declining fertility.
Total Fertility Rate & National Trend
Australia's total fertility rate (TFR) increased marginally from 1.481 in 2024 to 1.497 births per woman in 2025, reversing the recent downward trend.
The replacement fertility rate, required to maintain population numbers without migration, is approximately 2.1 births per woman. Australia's TFR has remained below replacement since 1976, briefly approaching this level again in 2008. The TFR remains almost 17% below its 2015 level of 1.796, and 2025 was the third consecutive year below 1.5.
While the latest results are encouraging, they provide little evidence yet of a sustained recovery in underlying fertility.
State & Territory Differences in Fertility
Fertility rates continue to vary across jurisdictions, with some notable changes in 2025:
Tasmania recorded the highest TFR (1.568), followed by New South Wales (1.546) and the Northern Territory (1.540).
The ACT continued to have the lowest TFR (1.283), followed by South Australia (1.424).
New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia recorded increases, while Victoria's TFR declined from 1.521 to 1.476.
All jurisdictions nevertheless recorded fertility rates below those of a decade earlier.
Year-on-year comparisons require caution. Improved registration processing boosted recorded births in New South Wales, while the clearance of backlogs contributed to higher registrations in Western Australia. Victorian registrations also continue to reflect earlier processing delays.
The TFR in each of the Capital Cities was well below its Rest of State counterpart across all states.
Capital City TFRs were remarkably consistent between 1.38 and 1.42 in 2025, except for Canberra (1.29) and Darwin (1.57).
Rest of State TFRs vary more widely, from a low of 1.55 in Rest of Northern Territory, to a high of 1.91 across Rest of Victoria.
Age-Specific Fertility: Shifting Age Patterns
The trend towards later childbearing continued in 2025, although there are signs of stabilisation among some age groups.
Women aged 30–34 recorded the highest fertility rate at 108.2 births per 1,000 women, up from 106.0 in 2024. Fertility among 35–39-year-olds also increased, from 66.6 to 68.5.
Notably, the 25–29 age group recorded a modest increase from 71.3 to 71.9, following several years of decline.
Conversely, fertility among women aged 15–24 continued to fall, while the rate for 40–44-year-olds eased slightly. The median age of mothers remained unchanged at 32.1 years.
These trends reinforce the longer-term shift towards family formation into the 30s rather than the 20s.
Fertility by Country of Birth
An important feature of Australia's declining fertility has been the growing differential between Australian-born and overseas-born women. There has been a much sharper drop in the TFR for overseas born residents since 2021 compared to Australian born, which has been a contributor to the lower fertility rate.
The overseas born TFR fell to 1.25 in 2025, versus 1.60 for the Australian born females. The post-COVID migration surge means over 20% of 15-49 year old overseas-born females have arrived since 2021. Many are temporary migrants who are less likely to have children while studying or establishing themselves financially, or waiting for more certainty on residency status. Recent migrants are also more likely to settle in a Capital City, which also helps to explain the TFR differential between the cities and the regions.
Outlook
The modest improvement in fertility in 2025, combined with growth in the number of women entering the high-fertility 30–34 age group, suggests that annual births could remain around 300,000 or potentially increase.
However, much depends on whether fertility stabilises or resumes its decline. Cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability and financial uncertainty continue to influence decisions about starting or expanding families. If these pressures ease, some delayed births could occur. Alternatively, prolonged delays may translate into permanently smaller families as the reproductive window narrows.
Migration adds another important dimension. Historically, overseas-born women have shown higher fertility in older age groups, meaning that as recent migration surges feed through and the overseas born population settles, births could rise again in the medium term.
The key question is whether Australia's falling fertility reflects a postponement of childbearing or a more permanent reduction in family size. The implications for future population growth, housing demand and demographic structure will be significant.
Cost of living and COVID-related impacts will continue to reverberate through Australia’s demographic profile.
For more information on demographic change and its impact, please do not hesitate to contact either Angie Zigomanis at [email protected] or Rob Burgess at [email protected].
