A quick snapshot of the recent June 2025 National Population data release indicates that the moderation of Australia’s rate of population growth continues.
National trends
Australia’s population increased by 420,000 in the year to June 2025 to 27.614 million. While the rate of population growth remains rapid by historical standards, it is below the 534,000 recorded the prior year, and continues the slowdown recorded since population growth peaked at 662,000 in the year to September 2023. Having said that, there was actually an acceleration in population growth in the June quarter itself, rising to 82,189 from the increase of 80,769 recorded in June quarter 2024.
Across the states and territories, it was a mixed bag. Compared to the prior year, all states reported lower annual population growth in the 2025 financial year, with the exception of Tasmania and Northern Territory. The declining trend also started to be turned around in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and Australian Capital Territory, with these states adding more people in June 2025 than they did in June 2024.
Net overseas migration by state
The slowdown in net overseas migration (NOM) inflows appears to be flattening out. For the June quarter, NOM added 50,100 people, down from 55,800 a year earlier, which suggests that the pace of decline is slowing when compared to the annual decline in NOM to 305,000 in the year to June 2025, from the 429,000 recorded the previous year.
The slowdown has occurred in nearly all the states, with only Queensland, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory recording year-on-year increases in the quarter. Victoria experienced the largest decline in absolute numbers (from 16,527 in June 2024 to 12,753 in June 2025) compared to the other states, suggesting that it may have been most impacted by the slowdown in student visa grants over the past year.
Notably, net overseas migration departures were lower in the June quarter. The reduction is unusual given the prior consistent upward trend that has reflected those that contributed to the earlier record overseas arrivals progressively returning home.
More recent monthly data on net permanent and long-term arrivals and departures from the ABS suggests that NOM has started to pick up in the second half of 2025. If we also do not see the return of higher NOM departures in the coming quarters, then we are likely to see an annual increase in NOM in 2025/26. The contrasts with NOM forecasts in the Federal Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) published this week, of NOM declining to 260,000 in 2025/26 and 225,000 in 2026/27.
Net interstate migration
Interstate mobility continues to decrease. Total interstate movers in June quarter 2025 were 9% down on the same quarter a year earlier, with year to June numbers down by 6% on a year earlier.
Net gains in the June quarter were recorded in Queensland, Western Australia and Victoria. Queensland and Western Australia’s net gains, while still positive, were smaller than the inflows of the prior year and have slowly trended downwards.
The declines in the traditional “sunbelt states” of Queensland and Western Australia were to the benefit of most of the other states and territories which, with the exception of Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory all recorded improvements in net interstate migration. Meanwhile, Victoria recorded its second quarter of positive net inflow.
Natural increase
The 77,600 registered births in the quarter were up by 6% in the same quarter a year prior, although numbers are often influenced by changes to the timing of registrations taking place in different states. Births in year to June 2025 (300,300) were 3% up the prior twelve months. The Total Fertility Rate (births per woman) increased from 1.49 in 2023/24, to 1.52 in 2024/25. This eventual increase had been flagged in Quantify’s paper looking at Australia’s declining fertility rate in more detail, which indicated that the decline in the rate was partly due to the rapid increase in child bearing age cohorts due to the surge in net overseas migration. Across the states, Victoria (+9%) and Western Australia (+5%) recorded the strongest annual increase.
Meanwhile, the number of deaths in June quarter 2025, at 45,500, was down on June quarter 2024. Across the year to June 2025, total deaths (185,700) were largely unchanged from the prior year (185,100).
The growth in births took the natural increase to 114,600 in the year to June 2025, up from 105,200 the prior year, but well below the pre-COVID level of around 140,000 per annum. Further upside is likely to be limited given Australia’s ageing population and expectation for deaths to trend upward, while housing affordability and cost of living challenges are expected to prevent significant growth in the number of births.
Implications for dwelling demand
Quantify Strategic Insights estimates that population growth to June 2025 translates to demand for around 195,000 new dwellings. While down from underlying demand of 227,000 dwellings the prior year, it is nevertheless 21,000 dwellings short of the 174,000 dwellings completed in the year, further compounding the underlying deficiency of dwellings that has been building up through the post-COVID period and maintaining pressure on the rental market.
Australia’s sustained population growth contrasts with that of Canada, where changes to immigration policy saw population actually decline in the three months to September 2025 . It will be interesting to compare the outcomes of these contrasting policies in the coming years.
For further insight into the implications of population growth nationally and across the states, contact Angie Zigomanis at [email protected] or Rob Burgess at [email protected]
