The post-COVID period has reshaped population growth patterns across Victoria, revealing a clear divergence between Greater Melbourne and regional LGAs, while also exposing variation within each group depending on housing supply, lifestyle appeal, and economic structure.
Greater Melbourne growth areas have the fastest population growth
Within Greater Melbourne, population growth has been overwhelmingly concentrated in outer suburban LGAs such as Melton, Wyndham, Casey, Cardinia and Mitchell. These areas, characterised by available greenfield land and relatively lower house prices, have absorbed most of the metropolitan growth, with rates far exceeding the Melbourne average. This reflects both continued greenfield expansion and a pandemic-driven preference for larger dwellings.
Fastest growing infill areas attracting overseas migration . . .
In contrast, much of inner and middle Melbourne has experienced lower increases than the Growth Areas. Notably, the strongest growing inner/middle LGAs over 2019–2025 have been Melbourne, Maribyrnong, Merri-bek, Whitehorse, Monash and Glen Eira.
A common feature of these LGAs is the proximity to major university campuses (Boroondara, which contains a university campus but where population remains below pre-COVID levels, being a notable exception). These LGAs were among the most exposed to the collapse in international student arrivals during COVID and have subsequently recovered as overseas migration returned.
. . . but also lose population to elsewhere in Australia
Another common feature is that all these LGAs experience a net internal migration outflow – i.e. locals moving out of the LGA – which suggest that their growth is being less by domestic household formation and more by the reactivation of international migration flows, particularly students and young renters.
This raises questions of both the adequacy of the current housing mix in keeping population in these locations, and/or whether planning needs to double down on encouraging housing typologies that better reflect migrant-driven demand
Peri-Urban lifestyle precincts showing the strongest population growth in Regional Victoria
Regional Victoria presents a different set of dynamics. Growth has been strongest in lifestyle-oriented and peri-urban LGAs such as Bass Coast, Surf Coast, and Baw Baw, as well as accessible centres within commuting distance of Melbourne. Drivers have been amenity and increased flexibility in work arrangements. However, these areas often face housing supply bottlenecks, contributing to affordability pressures and limited rental availability.
Many parts of western Victoria are in decline
At the same time, more remote rural LGAs, particularly in western Victoria, continue to experience population decline, reflecting limited economic diversification and slower housing demand. Supply-side interventions alone are less likely to shift long-term trends without broader economic development. In these locations, the policy challenge is about maintaining viable housing markets and services.
Better location-based planning for housing that addresses the differences across regions is required
Post-COVID population trends have reinforced the need for a more coordinated housing strategy across Victoria. Key priorities include ensuring a matching demand and supply mix in established Melbourne LGAs, aligning infrastructure investment with growth in outer suburbs, and ensuring that high-growth regional areas can respond quickly with new housing supply.
At Quantify Strategic Insights, we help shape effective housing strategies, support developers in identifying opportunities, and guide investors in understanding risk and demand across the housing spectrum. With deep expertise and market-leading data, we are uniquely positioned to help provide support for more targeted, effective housing outcomes.
For more information, contact Angie Zigomanis at [email protected] or Rob Burgess at [email protected]
